On 28 August 2026, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh delivered the keynote In Our Time at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The text was for release on delivery at 10:00 a.m. EDT (8:00 a.m. MDT). Warsh said the gathering marked his 100th day as Chairman. He offered an outline of the remarks and asked that it not be called forward guidance. Forward guidance as a regular practice, he said, had “overstayed its welcome,” and in normal times its role should be limited and circumscribed.
Warsh stated that the Federal Reserve’s price-stability objective of 2 percent, measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, “is a firm, fixed target.” On the employment side of the mandate, he said labor markets were “quite stable.” The jobless rate, at 4.1 percent, remained low by historical standards and had not changed much for a couple of years. People who want to work, he said, were by and large holding or finding jobs. As of now, he believed the labor markets were consistent with full employment.
On prices, he said the numbers were more concerning. The 12-month change in the PCE price index stood at 3.7 percent; the six-month change was 4.1 percent. Comparable measures from the consumer price index, and core measures of both PCE and CPI inflation, were also elevated. “None of these measures are perfect, but they all tell a similar story: Inflation is running above our 2 percent target.” Broad inflation measures had fallen significantly from their 2022 heights, he said, but progress over the past two years had been modest. “And while this summer’s PCE and CPI readings were better than expected, they do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved.”
Of 199 individual PCE components, 54 percent had shown 12-month price increases above 3 percent, well below the post-pandemic high of about 77 percent but still well above the 32 percent recorded in the two decades before the pandemic. On a six-month annualized basis, 49 percent of components showed price increases above 3 percent. Real consumer spending had increased more than 2 percent over the past four quarters. Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) had increased at a pace of nearly 3 percent so far in calendar 2026. The four-quarter change in investment in equipment and intangibles was around 9 percent, its highest growth rate since 2021.
Credit spreads on corporate bonds and leveraged loans were near the low ends of their historical ranges, Warsh said, and in the July Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices, banks reported that standards for commercial and industrial loans were on the easier end of their historical range. Credit and loan markets were showing few signs of policy restraint. “On balance, I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.”
His standard, he said, was that policymakers must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to the 2 percent objective, “clearly and at sufficient speed.” He closed: “I stand here today committed to a discipline, not to a decision.”